We ran 10 simulations for each biophysical setting state-and-transition model over 1000 cells and 1000 annual time steps (Provencher et al.,

2008 and Forbis, 2006). Simulations were started with an equal proportion in each s-class and it took 200–400 years for the initial trends to stabilize. We calculated the range for each s-class as ±2 standard deviations from the mean abundance from the last 500 time steps (Provencher et al., 2008). Simulations were modeled using the Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool (ESSA Technologies, 2007). Following the LANDFIRE and FRCC conceptual framework, we defined discrete landscape units to compare present-day forests to modeled NRV reference Ribociclib cost conditions (Barrett et al., 2010 and Pratt et al., 2006). Landscape units varied in size based upon their associated historical fire regimes (Hann and Bunnell, 2001 and Hardy et al., 2001) as described in each biophysical setting model (Appendix

A.2). To be meaningful, landscape units must be large enough to fully contain the extent of historical disturbance events and scale of other ecological this website dynamics, but small enough to allow detection of present day disturbance events or management activities (Keane et al., 2009 and Landres et al., 1999). In a simulation study focusing on landscapes in northern Utah, USA, Karau and Keane (2007) report an optimal landscape size of ∼11,500 ha for assessing vegetation dynamics within low and mixed severity fire regime biophysical settings. Historically high severity fire regime systems require much larger landscapes to evaluate vegetation dynamics.

Within the Oregon Coast Range, Wimberly et al. (2000) recommend landscapes of 300,000 ha or larger to compare modeled historic and current levels of late-successional stands within forests with a high severity fire regime. In comparison to these PRKACG previous studies, we used slightly larger landscape units to ensure appropriate estimates of restoration need. Restoration needs within historical Fire Regime Group I (FRG I; Table 1) biophysical settings were calculated within watersheds (10-digit/5th level hydrologic units; average ∼46,000 ha). Within historical Fire Regime Group III (FRG III; Table 1) biophysical settings we used subbasins (8-digit/4th level hydrologic units; average ∼285,000 ha). For these two scales, we used watershed and subbasin delineations from the US Geological Survey Watershed Boundary Dataset (Simley and Carswell, 2009; http://nhd.usgs.gov). Finally, restoration need within historical Fire Regime Groups IV and V (FRG IV & V; Table 1) biophysical settings was assessed within “map zones” (Fig. 1; average ∼3.5 million ha) modified from the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project “Model Regions” (Halofsky et al., in press). We created “map zones” by setting the boundaries of the ILAP Model Regions to subbasin boundaries in order to maintain consistent nesting of our landscape units.